2016 Masters odds: Jason Day is your new favorite at Augusta National

We always say the Masters is wide open, but this year there’s no overwhelming favorite and just about every single top player in the world is playing well coming into Augusta.

The Masters has a much smaller field than the other majors, hovering around 90 this year compared to the 156 players at the U.S. Open, Open Championship and PGA Championship. Within that 90-player set, a handful of old-timers, rookies, and amateurs can be immediately eliminated. You might be able to whittle it down to a group of, say, 15 players you think have a very good chance to win.

The value of betting on the actual favorites is not going to be worth it. Sure, Tiger Woods was the dominant face of the game and you might pick him to win, but betting him at 3/1 to win was not good value. Pegging this Masters seems especially difficult because all the top players, both those who are the famous faces and at the top of the world rankings, have played well through the first quarter of the year. Rory McIlroy is the only player in the top six of the Official World Golf Rankings without a win, but he hasn’t exactly hacked it up all year either. In the past, it was easy enough to weed out those favorites as just a renowned name that the public might unknowingly back. There’s not really any example of that this year.

The slight favorite at the top of Masters week is Jason Day at 7/1. His “Big Three” compatriots, defending champ Jordan Spieth and McIlroy, are 8/1, per Jeff Sherman of the Las Vegas SuperBook and GolfOdds.com. Day comes to the Masters having regained the world No. 1 ranking after two straight wins against deep fields at some of the Tour’s premier events. It makes sense that he would be the favorite. He’s got all the advantages that work at Augusta — embarrassingly long off the tee and a hot putter. That’s an advantage everywhere, but it can be extra helpful at the season’s first major. Day has second- and third-place finishes in just a five-year Masters career. He’s a sensible pick to win, but as I noted above, the 7/1 line given all the talent around him is not good value.

The better values rest a little further down the list somewhere from 25/1 to 60/1. Charl Schwartzel and Patrick Reed at 40/1 are enticing and Louis Oosthuizen at 30/1 will be everyone’s trendy pick by Thursday morning. Only three rookies have ever won at Augusta, the last being Fuzzy Zoeller wayyy back in 1979. But if you’re looking way down the odds for a longshot, the rookies, some of whom have been the best players in the world over the past year, are ones to tab. Players like Justin Thomas, Emiliano Grillo, Smylie Kaufman, Kevin Kisner and even Andy Sullivan have long odds but it would not surprise those who follow closely to see them on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday. It’s easy to fall in love with the new guys and “young talent” but if you want good longshots, go that direction.

Here are your odds for the entire field as Masters week begins. There may be some slight movement based on what happens during the practice days, but don’t expect much (via Jeff Sherman):

Player Odds to Win
Jason Day 7/1
Jordan Spieth 8/1
Rory McIlroy 8/1
Bubba Watson 12/1
Adam Scott 12/1
Rickie Fowler 15/1
Phil Mickelson 15/1
Dustin Johnson 20/1
Henrik Stenson 20/1
Justin Rose 25/1
Hideki Matsuyama 30/1
Louis Oosthuizen 30/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Charl Schwartzel 40/1
Zach Johnson 50/1
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
Danny Willett 50/1
Brooks Koepka 60/1
Matt Kuchar 60/1
Sergio Garcia 60/1
Paul Casey 60/1
Marc Leishman 60/1
Jimmy Walker 80/1
Branden Grace 80/1
Justin Thomas 100/1
Bill Haas 100/1
Harris English 100/1
Ryan Moore 100/1
Jason Dufner 100/1
Kevin Kisner 100/1
Charley Hoffman 100/1
J.B. Holmes 125/1
Ian Poulter 125/1
Kevin Na 125/1
Martin Kaymer 150/1
Lee Westwood 150/1
Angel Cabrera 150/1
Billy Horschel 150/1
Shane Lowry 150/1
Danny Lee 150/1
Byeong Hun An 150/1
Kevin Streelman 150/1
Andy Sullivan 150/1
Keegan Bradley 200/1
Victor Dubuisson 200/1
Chris Kirk 200/1
Graeme McDowell 200/1
Webb Simpson 200/1
David Lingmerth 200/1
Bernd Wiesberger 200/1
Jamie Donaldson 200/1
Scott Piercy 200/1
Russell Knox 200/1
Emiliano Grillo 200/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 200/1
Hunter Mahan 250/1
Ernie Els 250/1
Fred Couples 250/1
Anirban Lahiri 250/1
Daniel Berger 250/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 250/1
Chris Wood 250/1
Bryson DeChambeau 250/1
Robert Streb 300/1
Cameron Smith 300/1
Thongchai Jaidee 300/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 300/1
Smylie Kaufman 300/1
Steven Bowditch 500/1
Vijay Singh 500/1
Troy Merritt 500/1
Fabian Gomez 500/1
Bernhard Langer 500/1
Davis Love III 500/1
Soren Kjeldsen 500/1
Vaughn Taylor 500/1
Trevor Immelman 1000/1
Darren Clarke 1000/1
Jin Cheng 1000/1
Romain Langasque 2000/1
Derek Bard 2000/1
Mike Weir 2500/1
Mark O’Meara 2500/1
Tom Watson 2500/1
Sammy Schmitz 2500/1
Paul Chaplet 2500/1
Sandy Lyle 5000/1
Ian Woosnam 5000/1
Larry Mize 9000/1

Source: sbnation.com

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